Ontra Market Index Report Shows Private Markets Deal Recovery Is Underway
Mid-year data projects back-to-back quarters of deal volume growth for the first time in the Market Index’s 39-month history, with NDA data surfacing the turn a full quarter early
SAN FRANCISCO, July 21, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ontra, the leader in AI-powered solutions for the private markets, today published the mid-year edition of its Market Index, the industry's only leading indicator of private markets deal activity. NDAs open every private transaction, so the dataset captures deal intent roughly 90 days before closings reach conventional benchmarks. The data shows the recovery has begun: NDA volume jumped 7.2% year over year in June, the first month above seasonal norms in 17 months, and the Market Index projects third-quarter deal volume up 3.2%. That would mark the first back-to-back quarters of deal volume growth in the Market Index’s 39-month history, while closed-deal tallies will not register the shift until fall.
From “Still to Emerge” to Underway
In June, Bain & Company’s 2026 Private Equity Midyear Report cited Ontra’s Market Index data in concluding the market was flat, with a broad-based recovery “still to emerge.” Ontra’s mid-year update changes that. Second-quarter deal volume grew 3.2%, ending four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines, and June's NDA surge converts to September closings, directly supporting a second consecutive quarter of growth.
A Recovery Led From the Edges
The rebound did not start with the largest players or in the US. Smaller firms and non-US markets drove the recovery, while larger firms and the US market were essentially flat. The June data also shows a market that has learned to absorb shocks: the late February oil price spike barely registered in NDA volume, where the 2025 tariff announcement suppressed activity for more than a year.
“Every conversation with fund managers comes back to the same question: when does dealmaking return? Our data shows it already has,” said Troy Pospisil, CEO and Founder of Ontra. “NDA volume is the first place a market turn shows up, and June's turn was broad: every segment we track grew for the first time this year. Firms that see the shift a quarter early can act a quarter early.”
About the Market Index
Ontra processes more than 1,000 NDAs daily across its customers, including nine of the top ten PEI-ranked asset managers. This edition expands the Market Index cohort to 237 validated firms, adding 60 newly validated firms alongside the original cohort to broaden coverage of the private markets ecosystem. Validation across 39 months of paired observations confirms a strong correlation (r = 0.577) between NDA volume and closed deal volume three months later. Deal volume reflects Preqin closed non-VC deal counts. Ontra will publish Market Index updates throughout 2026.
The full Market Index Report is available here.
About Ontra
Ontra is the leader in AI-powered solutions for the private markets. Powered by industry-leading AI, data from over 2 million contracts, and a global network of legal professionals, Ontra automates critical private market workflows across the fund lifecycle. Ontra's solutions transform unstructured data trapped in static documents into actionable intelligence, enabling firms to accelerate contracts, streamline compliance, and automate entity management. Trusted by more than 1,000 global GPs, investment banks, law firms, and advisors — including nine of the top ten PEI-ranked firms worldwide — Ontra helps firms focus on what's important.
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